ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) — For the first time in more than 20 years, Georgia Democrats say the state House is genuinely in play.

Democrats need a net gain of 10 seats to reach 91 of 180 and take control of the chamber for the first time since 2004. A new memo from Fair Fight, in partnership with the DLCC and the Georgia House Democratic Caucus, argues the path is real — and broader than a dozen districts.

In a September polling partnership with Z to A Research of 13 of the most competitive districts, Fair Fight says 12 of 13 Democrats finish ahead of or tied once voters hear about both candidates.

Republicans call it the same prediction they hear every cycle — and say this year will be no different.

Why Georgia Democrats say 2026 is different

Democratic strategists are looking to 2018 to gain confidence in this year’s midterms. Like 2026, it was a midterm year in the middle of a Donald Trump administration.

“This election cycle is a lot like the 2018 election cycle in that it is nearing the end of a period before a census, it is the second year of a Trump term, and there’s been a lot of population growth in say, Atlanta’s suburban counties,” said Melita Easters, founder of Georgia Win List.

That growth, she said, means demographics in many of Atlanta’s suburban districts have shifted towards more favorable conditions for Democrats.

Fair Fight makes the same historical point: Democrats gained +11 House seats in 2018, then added +2 in 2020, 2022 and 2024, and +1 in 2025 for a total of +18 since 2018. The state has gone from 44.8% Black in 2012 to 50.39% in 2024, making Georgia now a majority-minority state.

Close 2024 losses are now rematches

“Some of the races that we have targeted for this cycle were terribly close in the last cycle. And a couple of candidates are repeat candidates,” Easters said.

Many of those candidates, Easters says, are in the districts Democrats are looking to flip in 2026. In Forsyth and Gwinnett counties, she noted, the AAPI share is now higher than the Los Angeles County area.

“They’re running in these fast growing suburban counties where there’s been growth and some of them are running with the advantage of the name recognition from a prior campaign,” easters said.

The D.C. effect

Easters also believes Democrats will capitalize off growing frustration with D.C. politics and affordability concerns.

House Minority Leader Carolyn Hugley, a Columbus Democrat, said if Republicans do fumble the majority, it’ll be their own doing.

“They set this table... because we’ve been operating on their agenda for the last 20 years,” she said. “Everything is costing us more and that has set the stage for the people of Georgia to say wait a minute, affordability is not just a buzz word, it’s something that’s happening to me each and every day.”

Hugley also cited tariffs and higher prices.

“People are saying, let’s take a look in another direction,” she added.

Easters said turnout is also a factor.

“The higher the percentage of turnout the better Democrats fare, that’s just a numbers game nationwide, and our early voting turnout is just astonishing,” she said. “I think Democrat’s confidence is not overconfidence, its hopeful confidence.”

Why Republicans say it won’t happen

GOP strategist Stephen Lawson, also an advisor to House Speaker Jon Burns, was direct.

“No, I don’t buy it,” he said. “One of the reasons is Republicans have really strong candidates. The power of incumbency is real, but they’ve also got a record of delivering results in terms of cutting property taxes, state income tax cuts, health care, education funding.”

Lawson doesn’t see national politics as a factor in many voter’s decisions especially given the success he says Republicans have proven over their two decades in power.

“The larger environment nationally and across the state may be in Democrat’s favor but in terms of structural, on the ground advantages I think it’s with House Republicans,” Lawson said. “Voters have been able, particularly under the leadership of Brian Kemp and Republicans here, to separate what’s going on in Washington from how the state is being run and it’s being run really well.”

Lawson says House leaders like Speaker Burns have been intentional about putting lawmakers, and now candidates, in positions to garner policy wins going into an election year.

He pointed to incumbents like Rep. Scott Hilton carrying the classroom cellphone ban and Rep. Matt Reeves leading on insurance reforms as examples.

Easters feels the confidence among GOP candidates in vulnerable district is posturing.

“The denial is interesting,” she said. “They have to hold out the hope that they are indestructible because it’s the fundraising machine that keeps them in office. But we’ll see on Election Night.”

The math: Ten seats decide the majority

Democratic pollsters tested each district three different ways: first a straight cold horse-race, then again after voters heard a quick bio of the Democrat, then one more time after they heard the contrast case against the Republican — that’s what the Fair Fight memo calls the informed ballot.

And on average, Democrats moved 11 points from cold to informed — that’s one more than the 10 they actually need to take the House majority.

Here are the districts House Democrats think they can win:

Likely Flips: The rematches Democrats call must-wins

• HD 105: Farooq Mughal (D) vs. Sandy Donatucci (R - incumbent) — North Gwinnett
• HD 53: Beth Fuller (D) vs. Deborah Silcox (R - incumbent) — Sandy Springs
• HD 99: Michelle Kang (D) vs. Rep. Matt Reeves (R - incumbent) – Duluth
• HD 48: Adam Cleveland (D) vs. Rep. Scott Hilton (R - incumbent) — Peachtree Corners / Johns Creek

Potential Flips:

• HD 44: Danielle Bell (D) vs. Rep. Don Parsons (R-incumbent) — Cobb
• HD 34: Titus Nichols (D) vs. Rep. Devan Seabaugh (R-incumbent)
• HD 19: Cynthia Starke-Jones (D) vs. Joseph Gullett (R-incumbent)
• HD 147: Renita Duncan (D) vs. Bethany Ballard (R-incumbent)
• HD 81: Mishael White (D) vs. Rep. Noel Kahalan (R-incumbent)
• HD 45: Michelle Schreiner (D) vs. Rep. Sharon Cooper (R-incumbent)
• HD 49: Sara Fuchs (D) vs. Rep. Charles Martin (R-incumbent)
• HD 184: Stephanie Burgess (D) vs. Rep. Ron Stephens (R-incumbent)
• HD 151: James E. Wolfe (D) vs. Rep. Mike Cheokas (R-incumbent)
• HD 154: Harry James (D) vs. Rep. Gerald Greene (R-incumbent) — Southwest Georgia
• HD 47: Lindsey DeFranco (D) vs. Rep. Jack Miller (R-incumbent)

Must hold districts:

• HD 121: Rep. Eric Gisler (D-incumbent) vs. Mack ‘Dutch’ Guest (R) — Athens area
• HD 128: Tyrone Evans (D) vs. Trey Sheppard (R) — Sandersville / east Georgia
• HD 145: Tangie Herring (D-incumbent) vs. Eric Wilson (R) — Macon-Bibb / Monroe

HD 108, 149, 150 are the likely holds for Democrats.

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