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(TNND) — Gerrymandering is a big problem in American politics, but it's only a problem in certain states, the Legislative Affairs Program Director at George Washington University said Thursday.
Politics professor Casey Burgat has turned his attention to the long-term issue as Texas and California engage in a “gerrymandering tit-for-tat” in the middle of the normal redistricting cycle.
“Gerrymandering was what you tried to get away with without getting caught,” Burgat said. “That used to be the old model. And the new model is just, from the president of the United States, is to outright use your partisan advantage within your states to get more and more of your party seats. And fairness be damned, competitiveness be damned.”
Texas Republicans passed a controversial redistricting bill in an effort to gain five congressional seats in next year’s midterm elections.
The move was encouraged by President Donald Trump, who touted his electoral success in the Lone Star State while saying in an interview early this month that Republicans “are entitled to five more seats” there.
In response, California Democrats, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, will ask voters to approve new election maps this fall that should give their party more seats in Congress.
“It's the game theory response to hardball politics by Texans and Republicans,” Burgat said of the California response. “That this is what you get. This is literally the gerrymandering war in its first stages. They go, we go further, and who knows how it ends.”
Not all redistricting is gerrymandering.
But all gerrymandering occurs during redistricting.
Gerrymandering occurs when the lines on the map are drawn for political advantage.
“The party that is in power is going to draw the maps for them to gain even more power,” Burgat said.
Burgat noted in one of his recent “Crash Course” politics newsletters that the majority of states let their legislatures draw the election maps.
Of those 33 states, 20 are controlled by the GOP.
Burgat said state lawmakers have a “perverse incentive” to form the lines in a way that will help their party.
On the other hand, independent redistricting commissions are responsible in eight states, including California.
Those bipartisan or nonpartisan boards are meant to reduce or even eliminate partisan gerrymandering.
“When you take politicians out of drawing their own lines, then you can get much more fair maps,” Burgat said.
Some states also use hybrid commissions, where elected officials or appointees sit on the boards, or advisory commissions for lawmakers.
But Republicans control more of the states where partisan redistricting is allowed, Burgat said.
“If this gerrymandering war continues, Republicans just simply have more bullets in the chamber to do this on such a partisan advantage,” he said.
In another “Crash Course” newsletter, Burgat pointed to the research from Princeton University’s Gerrymandering Project.
The Princeton researchers publish a map that shows a grade for each state based on the fairness of its approach to redistricting.
Of the states that earned an “A” grade, half went for Trump last election, and half went for former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Of the 12 states that earned an “F” grade, 11 went for Trump. The other was Illinois, where Burgat said Democrats have drawn “some of the ugliest, most distorted maps in the country.”
The states given failing grades were Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wisconsin.
Both parties gerrymander, he said.
But voters might blame Republicans for starting the current redistricting arms race, and that might backfire on the GOP in the next election, Burgat said.
“I think that a lot of folks are seeing this as a bridge too far, as an outright partisan grab,” he said. “And I suspect that people will reject that. Not everyone, obviously, but enough folks will, that will give Democrats some success.”
SEE ALSO: After Texas and California, more states see 'all options on the table' for redistricting
History suggests Democrats might recapture the tightly contested House from Republicans next year.
The sitting president’s party has lost seats in the House in eight of 10 midterm elections going back 40 years. Trump’s Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms.
Burgat said the GOP will have a hard time bucking history in the 2026 midterms.
“History is one thing, but you have an incredibly unpopular president who is struggling, is really underwater with independents, which will decide a lot of these races,” Burgat said.
And that speaks to the timing of this redistricting fight, he said.
“It's not random why they're doing this,” Burgat said. “They recognize the historical headwinds against them, plus all of the contemporary political headwinds. And they say, ‘How can we try to minimize these losses, ... if not outright try to keep the House majority.’”
News Source : https://wfxl.com/news/nation-world/who-has-the-edge-in-gerrymandering-war-brewing-ahead-of-next-years-midterms
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