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(TNND) — Americans aren't moving around the country like they used to, according to a new Bank of America report.
Citing account data, Bank of America researchers found both intra-city and city-to-city moves dropped in the second quarter from a year earlier.
And Bank of America found people are moving less than they were before the pandemic, down about 20% in the second quarter of this year compared to early 2020.
The Bank of America researchers blamed the “lock-in effect,” where homeowners don’t want to move and give up their lower mortgage rates, as well as the cooling jobs market.
Both Colorado State University economist Stephan Weiler and Bankrate financial analyst Stephen Kates also said the stagnant job and housing markets were weighing down relocation activity.
“Whether this is something that we can fix, I have my doubts about that,” Kates said. “But I do think it tells a story, especially lately, about how difficult it is for people to have the kind of ... mobility that they may want to.”
Weiler said the August jobs report, released Friday by the Labor Department, underscored the weakness on that front.
U.S. employers added just 22,000 jobs last month, and June and July job figures combined were revised down by 21,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years.
“The job market is treading water,” Weiler said.
The Bank of America report noted that around half of city-to-city moves come from the younger generations, Gen Z and millennials. But that share has slipped a little over the last year.
It could be that fewer young Americans are moving for new jobs.
“If people are feeling more uncomfortable with their job prospects, worried about recessions, they're less apt to do that, because they just aren't as financially secure or worried about their future financial security,” Kates said.
Moving is expensive, he said.
And the jobs market is hovering at an “uneasy equilibrium” without a lot of openings, Kates said.
“We have a low level of layoffs, which is a good thing,” he said. “But we also have an extremely low level of hiring, and that is not a good thing.”
That’s why Weiler said the Federal Reserve is likely to cut its benchmark interest rate when it meets later this month.
The Fed has a dual mandate to foster maximum employment and low inflation.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate 11 times beginning in early 2022 as a lever to tame inflation. But it may resume cutting rates as concerns shift to the jobs market.
The last cut was last December.
Weiler warned that Fed rate cuts aren’t likely to be a big relief to the lock-in effect that’s kept housing inventory down.
Interest rate cuts on mortgage rates are very weak at best, he said.
Mortgage rates are more influenced by long-term bond rates, which compete for those investment dollars.
Mortgage rates continue to trend down but remain elevated at around 6.5% for a 30-year loan.
The average 30-year rate was under 3% five years ago, according to Freddie Mac.
But how much does moving help the economy? Does it matter if Americans are staying in place?
“Yes, it does,” Weiler said.
The U.S. has always had a very mobile workforce, he said.
Moving generates economic activity.
But it’s also a way to create employment efficiency.
“Because the idea is that where the jobs are aren't always where the people who need the jobs are,” he said.
Kates said the rate of movers has slowly fallen over the decades, so this isn’t just a situation created by the cooling jobs market and a lack of affordable housing.
But he said the current environment creates more friction for those who do want to move.
News Source : https://wfxl.com/news/nation-world/fewer-americans-on-the-move-held-back-by-cooling-jobs-market-limited-home-supply
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