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Fed holds steady on interest rates with tariffs fueling uncertainty over inflation
Fed holds steady on interest rates with tariffs fueling uncertainty over inflation
Fed holds steady on interest rates with tariffs fueling uncertainty over inflation

Published on: 06/18/2025

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(TNND) — Federal Reserve policymakers held interest rates steady for their fourth straight meeting.

The Fed is in wait-and-see mode with the uncertain impact of tariffs on inflation.

The Fed meets four more times this year, with September likely the earliest the monetary policymakers would cut interest rates.

Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride said the Fed officials want more clarity before they commit to their next move.

McBride said the economy is doing well enough that Fed officials don’t feel like they need to hurry in their decision.

“They don't want to cut rates too soon and spark another bout of inflation. They don't want to cut rates too late and be chasing a weakening economy,” McBride said.

McBride said the uncertainty keeping the Fed in a holding pattern stems from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Inflation is low – the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation is 2.5%, and the goal is 2% - but the concern is that tariffs could fuel higher prices later this year.

“If it wasn't for that, the Fed might well be in a position where they could cut interest rates now, because we have seen progress on the inflation front,” McBride said.

Trump has pressured Fed chair Jerome Powell to lower rates.

“If the Fed would ever lower rates, you know, we’d buy debt for a lot less,” Trump told reporters earlier Wednesday.

Trump said the economy is doing great, and the president said inflation isn’t a problem now.

“We have a stupid person, frankly, at the Fed,” Trump said.

The Fed doesn’t directly set the interest rates consumers are most familiar with, such as those for homes and cars. But the Fed's actions do influence borrowing rates.

And prospective homebuyers shouldn't hold out hopes for a dramatic drop in mortgage rates if and when the Fed starts lowering its benchmark rate.

Mortgage rates are influenced by other variables, including the going rate of 10-year Treasury notes.

“Bond investors are very concerned about the trajectory of U.S. government debt,” McBride said. “And that's been keeping a floor under those long-term rates.”

The Fed has a dual mandate to foster maximum employment and low inflation.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate 11 times beginning in early 2022 as a lever to tame inflation. That rate now sits in a range of 4.25% to 4.5% after three rate cuts late last year.

Uncertainty over tariffs has also hit consumer confidence in recent months, though there has been improvement recently on that front.

The University of Michigan's long-running consumer sentiment index showed improvement for the first time in six months last week.

The survey’s director and chief economist, Joanne Hsu, said Americans who were spooked by Trump's tariffs aren’t as worried now, and they feel like the worst of the possible price impacts may have been avoided.

But Hsu said America’s trade policy is hardly settled, and the economic ingredients that sent consumer sentiment on a four-month slide remain.

Consumer sentiment was nearing record-low territory in April as Trump announced a slew of country-specific tariffs.

Those tariffs were paused a week later so the administration could negotiate more favorable trade deals with other countries.

But Trump maintained his 10% baseline tariffs on most countries, with higher tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.

McBride said the economic backdrop will matter when the Fed does start cutting rates.

“The ‘why’ is really what's important,” he said. “It's not just about the idea of cutting rates. I mean, that idea really gets romanticized. But we want the Fed to cut rates because inflation pressures are receding, and they can take the foot off the brake pedal a little bit. We don't want the Fed to cut rates because the economy's sputtering and in need of the stimulus of lower interest rates.”

News Source : https://wfxl.com/news/nation-world/fed-holds-steady-on-interest-rates-with-tariffs-fueling-uncertainty-over-inflation-federal-reserve-economy-tariffs

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